Christmas fairs and markets: Let’s do the Math
The festive season is packed with magic – glittering lights, upbeat tunes, and busy Christmas markets. For small businesses and artisans, these events offer an ideal platform to showcase unique products to eager shoppers hunting for that perfect gift. But setting up a stall isn’tjust about arranging your products; it’s about smart planning to make the most of sales and profits. Here’s a closer look at what to consider when prepping for a Christmas fair or market, complete with essential formulas to get your numbers right.
Estimating How Much Stock You Need
For Short Events (1-2 Days):
If you’re doing a shorter event, aim to bring enough stock to meet demand without overdoing it. Most vendors bring around 50 to 200 candles for a two-day event, adjusting based on the event type and past experience.
For Longer Markets:
With multi-day markets – especially the long-running ones you find in places like Germany or France – you’ll need a more detailed approach. Here’s a formula to help:
Daily Stock for Busy Days:
Daily Stock Busy Days = (Footfall×Conversion Rate)×(1+Peak Day Boost)
Footfall: Number of visitors expected.
Conversion Rate: At its simplest, the conversion rate answers the question: Of all the people visiting the market, how many are likely to become paying customers? It’s expressed as a percentage. For example, if 100 people visit the market and 5 of them buy something from your stall, your conversion rate is 5%.
Peak Day Boost: An extra percentage, usually 10-20%, to account for busier days.
Daily Stock for Quieter Days:
Daily Stock Quiet Days = Daily Stock Busy Days×Intent Adjustment
Intent Adjustment: A decimal, like 0.7 for 70%, estimating sales on quieter days.
Total Stock Needed:
Multiply your daily estimates by the number of market days to get your overall stock requirements.
Example Calculation:
For 10,000 expected footfall, with a conversion rate of 2% and a 15% boost on busy days:
Daily Stock Busy Days=(10,000×0.02)×(1+0.15)=200×1.15=230 units
For quieter days (with an 80% adjustment):
Daily Stock Quiet Days=230×0.8=184 units
These are starting points – adjust based on your insights and past experience.
Estimating How Much Stock You Need
Multiply your daily estimates by the number of market days to get your overall stock requirements.
Example Calculation:
For an event with a 10,000 person expected footfall, at a conversion rate of 2% and a 15% boost on busy days:
Daily Stock Busy Days= 10,000×0.02)×(1+0.15)=200×1.15=230 units
For quieter days (with an 80% adjustment):
Daily Stock Quiet Days=230×0.8=184 units
These are starting points – adjust based on your insights and past experience.
How to Estimate Your Conversion Rate
Your conversion rate will depend on various factors, including the type of event, the appeal of your products, and your past sales data. If you don’t have historical data, here are some ways to estimate:
Look at Past Events: If you’ve participated in similar markets, calculate your conversion rate from those events.
Market Type and Audience: Niche events (e.g., luxury artisan markets) often have higher conversion rates because attendees are more likely to be interested in unique, handmade items. Larger, more general markets might have lower rates because visitors come for a range of experiences, not just shopping.
Product Appeal and Pricing: Affordable or festive-themed products tend to convert better at Christmas markets, as shoppers are often gift hunting.
Ask Other Vendors: Experienced vendors can give insights into average conversion rates for specific types of events.
Understanding Visitor Numbers
Knowing footfall is key. Here’s how to gather that info:
- Ask the Organisers: They often have turnout stats from previous years.
- Chat with Other Vendors: Food vendors, in particular, can offer reliable numbers due to their perishable goods.
- Research Local Events: Past attendance figures for similar events can give you a baseline.
Visitor Number Examples:
- A peak day at a Christmas market in Scotland might attract about 75,000 visitors.
- Major markets in Strasbourg or Munich can draw up to 200,000 visitors on their busiest days.
Pricing Right
Setting the right price is a fine balance between covering costs, reaching profit goals, and keeping prices appealing.
Pricing Formula:
Price= (1−Discount Rate) / (Cost per Unit + Profit Margin)
Cost per Unit: Your total production cost per item.
Profit Margin: The amount you want to make per unit, generally 20% to 60%.
Discount Rate: The decimal form of any planned discount (e.g., 0.10 for 10%).
Things to Consider:
Seasonal Discounts: Festive shoppers expect deals. Starting with a higher profit margin can help you maintain profitability even after discounts.
Market Rates: See what similar products are going for to ensure you’re competitive.
Example Calculation:
£16.67 is the Retail Price (RRP) you quote to customers.
When you apply a 10% discount to £16.67:
£16.67×0.10= £1.67(discount amount)
£16.67−£1.67=£15.
The discounted price (£15) still covers the Cost (£10) and ensures your Profit Margin (£5).
You can set the RRP as £16.67 but advertise it as £15 with a 10% discount. This way, customers see a discount, but you maintain your target profit!
Picking the Right Mix of Stock
Offering a variety of items can attract more shoppers.
Bestsellers (Up to 50%): Focus on popular items – both year-round favourites and seasonal hits. Include a range of sizes and designs.
Gifting Options (10-15%): Stock medium or large candles with eye-catching packaging for gift shoppers.
Speciality Items (5-10%): Premium items priced a bit higher can appeal to shoppers looking for something unique.
Pro Tip: Display your premium products prominently to attract attention and showcase the range of your offerings.
Final Thoughts
To have a successful stall at a Christmas market, you need a good mix of planning and strategy. By estimating stock needs accurately, understanding visitor trends, pricing smartly, and curating your product range, you’ll be set to make the most of the festive season. Every market has its quirks, so while these tips are a great foundation, be sure to adapt them to each event.
Here’s to a festive season filled with great sales and holiday cheer!
If you need more details on making candles for holiday markets, feel free to reach out to our team on social media or join our facebook group.
Happy selling!